People's Daily Client News "GDP growth of about 5%".The 2024 development target proposed in this year's government work report has attracted much attention at home and abroad.According to the preliminary calculation, China's GDP will exceed 126 trillion yuan in 2023, and the annual economic growth will exceed 6 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to the annual economic aggregate of a medium-sized country.No wonder Agence France Presse sighed that this goal "is a 'dream' for many countries in the world, especially western developed countries".
For China, is the growth target of "around 5%" "pole vault" or "uniform running" with a steady rhythm?The answer is obviously the latter.
The economic operation is more like a "marathon" with a long race. The test is not only "weight", but also "physique". Today's Chinese economy has good quality.
On the one hand, the chassis is stable, flexible and strong.
Its scale is the second largest in the world and its growth rate has been among the best for many years. In 2023, the GDP growth rate of 5.2% will also be faster than that of major economies in the world.The "size" of China's economy is getting bigger and bigger: the proportion of its total economic output in the world has increased from 11.3% in 2012 to about 18% today, and its position as an important engine of world economic growth continues to be stable.The physique is also getting better and better: from the official launch of the world's first fourth generation nuclear power plant to the commercial operation of C919 aircraft, to the achievement of a number of major original achievements in quantum technology, integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, new energy and other fields, the "innovation" is growing, and the "high growth" is becoming increasingly prominent.
China's economy, which is larger and better built, has achieved effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity, and its economic operation has always been within a reasonable range.Such performance demonstrates strength and resilience, and also injects confidence to achieve growth of about 5% in the new year.
On the other hand, it has great potential, sufficient stamina and strong endurance.
Many runners know that it is critical to maintain a "uniform speed" for a long time in order to complete the marathon goal, which requires lasting and strong endurance, concentration and motivation.The same is true for economic growth, which mainly depends not on who can rush ahead at the start, but on who has greater potential and more stamina.
Demand is the scarcest resource in the world today.China, with a population of more than 1.4 billion, a rising income level, a middle-income group of more than 400 million, a new urbanization and upgrading of the consumption structure, and an accelerated transformation of the digital and green production and lifestyle, has the demand advantage of a super large market.
For example, this year the Chinese government proposed to promote large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade in, which is expected to leverage the huge market with an annual scale of several trillion yuan.Another example is to promote new urbanization with the focus on accelerating the citizenization of agricultural transfer population, which can not only benefit 170 million migrant workers and their families, but also further release the potential of domestic demand, providing a broader stage for investment and consumption growth.
Innovation is the first driving force for development.66 national strategic emerging industry clusters and 45 national advanced manufacturing industry clusters;More than 140 world top 500 and 12000 specialized, special and new "little giant" enterprises;In 2023, the investment in high-tech manufacturing will grow by 9.9%, and the R&D investment will be 3.3 trillion yuan... China will accelerate the development of new quality productivity, and the innovation vitality of the world's largest manufacturing country will become increasingly strong.
In Guangzhou, Guangdong, in the assembly workshop of Guangzhou Automobile Group, each production line is offline with one new energy vehicle, which only takes 53 seconds;Yibin, Sichuan, Yibin Factory of Chang'an, Time, produces a cell in one second and a battery pack in two minutes and thirty seconds;Haining, Zhejiang, in the photovoltaic production base of Jinko Energy, on average, more than 160000 photovoltaic modules are offline every day... New industries and new drivers represented by "new three kinds" thrive in China.
With large investment potential, wide consumption space, accelerated ignition of innovation engine, and continuous promotion of industrial upgrading, China's economy has a steady stream of endogenous power.
In 2024, although China's economy still faces various difficulties and challenges, the "scar" effect of the epidemic is weakening, related risks and hidden dangers are being resolved, and favorable conditions are stronger than unfavorable factors. The economy is expected to accelerate its return to the potential growth level. The goal of "about 5%" has been scientifically demonstrated and basically matches the potential of economic growth.
There are always two sides to the problem.The external environment is complex and severe, the competition in some industries is fierce, and some enterprises have difficulties in production and operation. China's economy is also facing many "problems in the process of progress and troubles in development".As some analysts say, although the economic growth target is the same as that of 2023, the growth base of 2024 is larger than that of 2023, so it is more difficult to achieve this growth target.
In response to "problems" and "troubles", the Chinese government has made a series of targeted, timely and forward-looking deployments: from "vigorously promoting the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerating the development of new quality productivity", to "focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting a virtuous cycle of the economy", to "unswervingly deepening reform and enhancing the endogenous power of development",One by one, we face the problems and hit the key points.We believe that with a solid foundation and a scientific response, "goals" and "possibilities" will gradually become reality.
Since this year, various business entities in various departments, regions and regions have already taken active actions: on Lingdingyang, the Shenzhen China Channel has accelerated its completion;The land around Beijing, the construction of the Beijing Tang inter city railway is booming;On the coast of the East China Sea, the Chinese ship Hudong China LNG ship has been producing non-stop, and the orders have been scheduled to 2028... The steady "starting" indicates that the economy is picking up: in the first two months, the national unified power generation has increased by 11.7% year on year, and the industrial power consumption has increased by 9.7%, highlighting the momentum of the recovery of the real economy;In February, the manufacturing PMI was 54.2% and the non manufacturing PMI was 57.7%, which continued to be in the expansion range, showing the good expectations of the operating entities.
People in the economic circle generally said that the expected economic growth target of about 5%, taking into account the current and long-term needs and possibilities, is a goal to boost confidence, stabilize expectations and better pool development consensus, and can be achieved through the joint efforts of all parties.
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According to the preliminary calculation, China's GDP will exceed 126 trillion yuan in 2023, and the annual economic growth will exceed 6 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to the annual economic aggregate of a medium-sized country.China, with a population of more than 1.4 billion, a rising income level, a middle-income group of more than 400 million, a new urbanization and upgrading of the consumption structure, and an accelerated transformation of the digital and green production and lifestyle, has the demand advantage of a super large market.